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EURUSD – Weekly Outlook for 18th Feb 2022

EURUSD Forecast for Forex

Introduction

There was a pause on the major currencies when the tension between the Russian army continues to increase its military personnel at Ukraine’s border. The India Forex platforms saw the trading volume reduced as traders and other market participants searched for evidence that a true de-escalation has taken place as at the writing of this report.

EURO and US News

Consumer Confidence   

The survey conducted among consumers who are over 2,250 within the Euro zones responded based on the economic conditions affecting the zones in terms of their financial situation, employment, and climate changes.

The outcome of the surveyed consumers indicates how they view the present and future economic conditions of the counties in the European Union. If the outcome of the survey is higher than the forecast, it is good for the currency. When the outcome is above 0 levels, it indicates optimism but a figure that is below 0 shows pessimism.

The forecast is -8 while the previous is -9.

Unemployment Claims

The unemployment claims report does have a high impact on the forex platform when the data collected is released. It is based on the number of people who officially applied for unemployment insurance for the first time in a week. The monetary policymakers pay attention to the report because, when the number of unemployed is high it affects the economic activity of the country. Some traders see the data as a lagging indicator. 

The Forecast is 217K while the Previous data was 223K.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Weekly Chart Bearish Swing

EURUSD weekly chart - 17th Feb 2022

Weekly Resistance Level: 1.14830, 1.18000

Weekly Support Level: 1.11215, 1.10000

The NATO general secretary Jens Stoltenberg said that the Russian military presence is increasing rather than the de-escalation that was said previously. The US Secretary of State also backed NATO’s claim. 

The Indian forex is likely going to see the price of the EURUSD pair drop if the tension around the border should be triggered by any of the sides. The EURUSD has been bearish in the past weeks and is a close below the support level of 1.11215 for the bearish trend to continue. 

However, if the bullish surge of 31 January 2022 is not a bridge, we may see the price gain bullish momentum to close above the resistance zone of 1.14830 which will expose the 1.18000 high.

Indian forex traders who investors who still have short positions running will be anticipating that the price will retest the support level of 1.11215 for a breakout below for the bearish trend to continue.

Daily Chart Projections: Bearish

EURUSD daily chart - 17th Feb 2022

Daily resistance Levels 1.14830, 1.16000

Daily Support Levels 1.11214, 1.12860

Since 26 November 2021, the EURUSD pair has been consolidating within a certain range of price. The volume of trade on the forex platform is low following the reports around the Russian and Ukraine border. If the tension increases, we shall see the EURUSD pair going south. The 1.12860 zone is another area that the Indian forex traders are looking at, following a shift in market structure.

Information about the war has overshadowed the FOMC meeting that was expected to be hawkish based on the Feds’ sentiments. Most market participants are watching the psychological zones where the price of EURUSD is for either a breakout above or a breakout below.

H4 Intraday Chart Overview

4 Hour Resistance levels 1.14947, 1.13958.

4 Hour Support levels 1.13023, 1.12865

The EURUSD pair makes a correction at the 1.14947 levels on the 4Hr time frame and the area continues to set lower exchange rate. A bearish swing took the price down to the low of 1.12801 before a retest of the 1.13958 support turned resistance level. If the price cannot close above the zone, the price of EURUSD will drop lower.

However, due to the situation of events around the border, the European leaders have scheduled an emergency meeting for Thursday. Some analysts think that cyberattacks on Ukraine institutions are been launched and this may also be an act of war.

 Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

Market participants, Indian forex traders, will be following the happenings around the Russia and Ukraine border while seeking other ways to invest their funds. On the FOMC side of the forex, the hawkish sentiment is expected from members of the Fed and the removal of policy accommodation could happen earlier than expected in the future.

The EURUSD pair will be in a consolidation state for a while until definite actions are noticed on the side of the Russian military around the border either for war or to de-escalate the tension.



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