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EURUSD – Weekly Outlook for 1st April 2022

EURUSD Forecast for Forex

Introduction

The Euro currency is expected to make some gains as we expect the peace talk between the Russia and Ukraine representatives to take a positive direction. Traders in India will also be paying attention to the forex platform as the US (NFP) news released during the trading week, a positive outcome will strengthen the American currency.

EURO and US News

Euro

German Unemployment Change 

The number of unemployed persons within the European zones was measured by the Federal Employment Agency to know if there is a reduction compared to the previous month.

ECB president will be speaking in a meeting during the week to address the inflation level within the European zones. A hawkish statement by some analysts will strengthen the euro. The central bank wants to mop up excess liquidity in the system, and it is through the interest rate. 

The statement is of importance to, Indian forex traders, investors, institutions, and retail traders listen who want to understand the tone of the statement and the economic condition influencing investment decisions. 

The non-farm payroll (NFP)

The NFP is also known as non-farm payroll is key data for the major currency in the financial market. It is also important for the economic health of the county because the information shows the number of persons who are engaged and actively working in various places excluding the farming industries. 

The non-farm payroll comes with high volatility when the data is released which has a higher impart on the stocks and forex markets. There are some levels of correlation between consumer spending and job creation. The NFP news will be coming up on the first Friday of a new month.

The Forecasted data is 485K, while the Previous NFP outcome was 678K.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Weekly Chart Bearish Swing

EURUSD weekly chart - 1st April 2022

Weekly Resistance Level:  1.16000

Weekly Support Level: 1.08000, 1.09610

Indian forex traders saw a deep in the US dollar index as the NFP was a disappointment because it fell below the expectations of the market participants. This made the previous candle close to a Doji candle. However, the trend remains bearish on the forex platform as you can see the swing push lower. 

The psychological zone on the weekly chart is 1.15000 zone for the Indian forex trader. If a breakout above 1.14000 is achieved by the long position traders, it will expose the resistance zones.

During the trading week, we expected strong fundamentals from the American zones and it may strengthen the US dollar from the 1.13000 levels if it comes out in favor of the dollar currency.

If the news does not favor the dollar the euro is likely to breakout above the 1.13000 zones to test the 1.16000 levels.

Daily Chart Projections: Bearish

Daily resistance levels: 1.12000.14000. 

Daily Support Levels 1.1000, 1.11000

The EURUSD pair continued the price bullish run and finally broke out above the 1.11400 resistance level at the tie of this report.  On the daily chart, you can see that the price broke out of the ascending triangle on at 22nd of March and the price retested the trendline on the 23rd before the Sellers continued the bearish run for that week. The new week started with a bearish momentum as Indian forex traders who are shorting the EURUSD pair are pushing for the retest of the support level of 1.08000.

However, the price was able to establish support around the 1.10000 zones as the negotiation for peace between the Russian and Ukraine groups meeting in Turkey is still on. The Bulls need to consolidate on the run by closing above the 1.12000 levels if other news should favor the euro.

H4 Intraday Chart Overview

4 Hour Resistance levels 1.12000, 1.13000.

4 Hour Support levels 1.08000, 1.10000, 

The EURUSD was in a consolidation state for some days as the price kept moving from the resistance level of 1.12000 back to the low of 1.10000. The bullish run of 29th March may likely breakout above the resistance zone that has held the price for some days. The bullish run is likely to test the 1.13000 level within the trading week.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The forex platforms will likely see more trading activities as the negotiation among the two parties is expected to have a breakthrough in Turkey. The NFP will also be an event to look out for as Indian traders and other institutions will be monitoring the outcome of the result.



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