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USDINR – Weekly Outlook & Analysis for 19th May 2022

Introduction

The bullish run on the USDINR pair has broken out of the 77.00 resistance level by the previous week’s candle, the bullish trend may continue in the following weeks but the price may retest the zone on the OlympTrade forex platform before the trend continues or reverses.

India’s Fundamentals 

The Indian authority unveiled its Startup policy for 2022 through a portal via video link. According to Prime Minister Mr. Narendra, the startups will receive subsidies to pay salaries and rent space under the proposed program.

New ideas were generated when the government met with some entrepreneurs when they shared their vision and how they might help other people. Some years ago, about 300 or more startup was implemented and the number has increased to over 66000.

The Minister also said that the state government will provide subsidies under the new program that will cover rented places about 5000 Indian rupees per month, and 5000 Indian rupees per head for salary with 25 workers and also for product patents under the new scheme.

US Fundamentals

US EXISTING HOME SALES 

The sales of homes are an economic indicator for the online brokers because it triggers a wide range of ripple effects on the forex platform and it talks about the status of the economy when the numbers of sales show a higher outcome. 

The renovation of houses is done by the new owners and they make payments to the financial house and the brokers are also paid for the execution of the transaction.

The outcome of the home sales is gotten from the National Association of Retailors which presents the records of residential buildings sold within a given time and excluding newly constructed buildings.

The current week’s forecast is 5.65M while the previous data was released at 5.77M.

USDINR Technical Analysis

Monthly Chart Projection: Trades within the correction area

USDINR monthly chart - 20th May 2022

Monthly Resistance Levels: 77.450, 80.00

Monthly Support Levels:  72.00, 73.00. 

The online brokers in a long position have seen the Indian rupee lose against the US dollar in the past three months as they made above 1.92%   The 77.0 resistance level is the period that saw the COVID-19 pandemic unsettling the global market. A breakout above the zone is likely going to be a factor that the USDINR has turned over the resistance into support.

The monthly chart scenario remains bullish as the long position traders take the price higher, however, the price may see rejection around the resistance level because it is a psychological zone in the market. If the rejections of the price are confirmed, the Indian rupee will be at an advantage over us dollar and the USDINR pair will go short.

Weekly Chart

USDINR weekly chart - 20th May 2022

Weekly Resistance Levels: 78.74 78.0, 77.02.

Weekly Support Levels: 74.00, 75.0, 76.0

The USDINR on the weekly time frame shows that the price has tested the resistance zone of 77.00 multiple times in the past weeks when observing the forex platform. The zone rejected the Bulls again before the level gave way for the Bulls, can the zone reject the retest for the uptrend to continue or it will break out below for the bears to run?

A breakout above the 77.00 zone will take the price to the next resistance level of 78.00 before the price of USINR is slowed by another zone of resistance.

Daily Projections: Breakout of Descending Triangle

Daily Resistance Levels:  75.72, 76.60, 77.00.

Daily Support Levels: 74.80, 73.80.

Uncertainty will likely dominate the behavior of online brokers and other investors as they want to see a retest and continuation of the trend on the forex platform. If the breakout is false, the movement of the price will fall back below the 77.00 level.  If online brokers and traders see pin bars and shooting stars candlesticks patterns, it shows that the price of the USDINR pair wants to favor the Indian rupee.

This might be a correction phase of the USDINR pair, as the uptrend swing is not reversed. The support level of 77.00 could hold when the deep retracement retests the zone.

This trading week, the Fed chairman will be making a speech and we expect volatility on the forex platform. Online brokers, Institutions, and investors will pay close attention to the nature of his speech to react to the steps taken regarding the hike in the interest rates by the Feds. 

Bullish Scenario:

A bullish scenario is still on the run until the price is slowed around the resistance zone of 78.00, as the bullish rally continues. A breakout above the 78.00 will take the price higher on the daily chart.

Bearish Scenario:

The Bear’s scenario may take place when the Indian rupee becomes stronger against the US dollar around the resistance zones of 78.00 if the Bears can push back the Bulls with strong rejections of the price.

Conclusion and Projection

As the USDINR pair approaches the resistance zone (78.00) on the daily chart, the sentiment in the market will be uncertain because of the psychological zones. Online brokers are not sure of the next move therefore, market participants will stay out until the next direction is clear.

As the Fed committees will be delivering their speech, online brokers and investors will follow the tone of their speech to know what they are planning to do regarding interest hikes.



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