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EURUSD – Weekly Outlook for 22nd July 2022


The Eurozone is currently feeling the economic impact of the Russia/Ukraine war as the EURO and Greenback go into parity as revealed on forex platforms, a first since twenty years ago, and there is a likelihood that the price may dip below the $1.00 mark again before Q4. 

Such a notable event draws the attention of forex institutions and retail investors to new macroeconomic events that may suggest the next market cycle, which could be either a pullback or a slowing of the sharp decline in the EURUSD exchange rate.

Let’s analyze the charts.

EURO and US News

Europeans French Flash Services PMI

The European Purchasing Manager’s Index is based on the level of diffusion that was carried out among various purchasing managers in the services industry. The survey was done among 750 purchasing managers who were asked to rate relative levels of businesses and their conditions in terms of price, new orders, production, production, and employment.

If the reading of the report is above the 50.0 level, it is an expansion in the industry while a lower figure is indicating a contraction in the industry. Therefore, if the actual release of data is greater than the forecast, it is good for the Euro but a lower outcome will strengthen the USD.

The forecast is 52.6 while the previous release was 53.9.


The Unite State Purchasing Managers Index survey was carried out among 400 purchasing managers who were asked to rate the business conditions within the industry. They are to rate the price, inventories, new orders, deliveries, and employment levels. The purchasing managers have relevant insight into the company’s view of the country’s economy and it is a leading indicator of the health status of the economy. 

If the purchasing manager’s data in the service industry should read above 50.0, there is an expansion in the service industry but a lower figure shows a contraction. Therefore, If the released number recorded is higher than the forecasted, it is good for the currency but a lower outcome is not suitable for the US currency. 

The previous data was 52.7, while the forecast is 52.6.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Weekly Chart Bearish Swing

EURUSD weekly chart - 22nd July 2022

Weekly Resistance Level: 1.07800, 1.103360.

Weekly Support Level:  1.00470

From the weekly chart, the EURUSD pair went into parity for the first time after many years the price left the zone. If the trading week should close by engulfing the previous week’s candlestick, the bullish run may continue into the coming week.

However, a close below last week’s trading low shows that the European economy is not healthy, also the effect of the Ukraine and Russia war has slowed down the recovery process of the European market and international businesses.

Daily Chart Projections: Bearish,

EURUSD daily chart - 22nd July 2022

Daily resistance Levels 1.03600, 1.06260

Daily Support Levels 0.99900.

The EURUSD pair hits the bottom part of the bearish channel which led to the bounce of the price for an upward movement. India forex traders expect the price movement to continue in the channel as it did previously by testing the upper trendline of the channel.

If the Euros fundamentals are strong and the currency continues to record good successes in its economic activities the EURUSD pair may break out of the upper channel which could bring about a change in the direction of the trend.

H4 Intraday Chart Overview, 

4 Hour Resistance levels 1.07800, 1.06260, 1.03350

4 Hour Support levels 0.99998, 1.01200

The 0.99905 zone was able to consolidate and the support level was established after the long position India forex traders were able to reverse the downward trend. As of the 15th of July 2022, the bullish engulfing candle signals the takeover of the zone when the buyers closed above the resistance level of 1.01200. we expect the trend to retest the previous support level of 1.03350, a breakout above the zone will take the price to a higher resistance zone of 1.06260.

The 200 EMA is a pointer that the EURUSD may not breakout easily from the 1.03350 zone, the short position traders are likely to see the US dollar regain some strength around the zone.

EURUSD Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The European central bank interest rate is an important fundamental for investors, retail traders, and forex brokers as all eyes will be on the ECB’s interest rate that is expected during the week. Analysts think that the ECB’s Governing Council are planning on a 50-bps rate hike for them to control the high levels of inflation while trying to prevent the fragmentation of the sovereign bond market in Europe.

The outcome of the ECB news will determine the direction of price in the coming days after seeing the dollar pulled back from the psychological zone which can affect the European currency against the dollar.

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