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EURUSD – Weekly Outlook for 22nd April 2022

Introduction

The forex platforms are expected to see some reaction from traders and other market participants as the EURUSD price approach the pre-pandemic zones. 

The last ECB meeting was a disappointment for the Euro currency as the members left monetary policy unchanged and no date was set for ending the Asset Purchased program.

EURO and US News

European Central Bank 

Debate on the Global Economy 

Christine Lagarde, ECB president will be speaking at the Spring Meetings of IMF (International Monetary Fund) and World Bank Group in USA Washington DC during the week.  

Traders, investors, Indian forex, and other participants will be following the meeting because her statements have a high influence on the Euro and investors would want to understand their plans regarding the future monetary policy. A more hawkish statement from her is good for the currency.

The US Existing Home Sales

The National Association of Realtors do release the data on the numbers of the residential building that were sold during a certain time in the previous month and the newly constructed buildings are excluded from the counted buildings. This report is released 20 days after the month ends.

The sales of homes have a wide ripple effect because of the number of people involved in the transaction. Money flows from the owners of the new house to the financing bank and mortgage bank, brokers are paid for the transaction. The sales of homes are a leading indicator of the economy and the health of the country’s economy also.

The Forecasted data is 5.78M, while the Previous outcome was 6.02M. 

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Weekly Chart Bearish Swing

EURUSD weekly chart - 22nd April 2022

Weekly Resistance Level:  1.16000, 1.10928

Weekly Support Level: 1.08000, 1.09610

Indian forex traders who broke out below the support level of 1.10928 were able to turn the previous support level into resistance by rejecting the buyer’s attempt around the zones as of 28 March 2022. The forex platform has been bearish for a while and the trend may continue if the price can close below the psychological zone of the market.

The level of inflation has been a factor that the ECB and other central banks have been struggling with as they fight against the high inflation pressure systematically. The ECB plans to raise the interest rates by 10 bps from July.

Data from the US housing shows that there is a high demand in housing recently as we expect more fundamentals from the American zones this financial week.

Daily Chart Projections: Bearish,

EURUSD daily chart - 22nd April 2022

Daily resistance levels: 1.11848,14000. 

Daily Support Levels 1.07479, 1.08059

At the close of 31 March 2022 daily candlestick, the Bears took over the market and pushed the EURUSD pair for the continuation of the bearish trend. The price will continue to push down if the war in Ukraine is not bought to an end soon because the commodity market is already affected because of Russia’s invasion.

Indian forex traders hoping for a long opportunity will have to wait for the morning star candlestick pattern to conform with a confirmation of trend reversal before they jump into the market. However, the rally needs to breakout above the resistance of 1.11848 before the trend is completely reversed into a bullish swing.

The dollar has been showing some weakness against other pairs as the price approaches the pre-pandemic zone of 2020 which led to the global lockdown of the world economy. Market participants also wait for the existing home sale release of the month of March alongside the summary of the Fed’s Beige Book that contains the economic condition of the state.

H4 Intraday Chart Overview, 

4 Hour Resistance levels 1.11750, 1.09885, 1.09230.

4 Hour Support levels 1.07612, 1.077574, 

The EURUSD tested the support zone as of 14 April 2022 and it was rejected on 19 April 2022, the EURUSD price was rejected again, which led to the rise in price. Looking at the forex platform, you can see that the price is sitting on strong support in the higher time frame.

On the H4 chart, the Bulls have rejected the price of EURUSD twice from the zone in this trading week. if long position traders can control the market by breaking out above the 1.09230 resistance zones the price will rally towards the psychological point of 1.12000.

EURUSD Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The interview held on Bloomberg with ECB governing council member Martins Kazaks hinted that the interest rate hike is possible in July and the ECB’s gradual approach does not mean that they are slow in their response. 

The forex platform will see more trading activities as the fundamentals from the West will likely influence the dollar as it rests on the pre-pandemic support zone. 

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