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USDINR – Weekly Outlook & Analysis for June 25 2019

USDINR Forecast & Technical Analysis for India Forex


The Indian Forex is nursing the various wounds it has experienced because of the upsurge of the pandemic. This also affected the Yes Bank after it failed to raise new capital, and the RBI has to take over the Bank. All these fear led to the stocks tumbling, and The Yes Bank shares plunged to 20%, and the State Bank of India fell 6%.

Fear of another outbreak is of concern as some records show signs of fresh cases that may put the world back into another lockdown.

India’s Fundamentals

The Indian rupee opens the market with a 0.67% decrease as of the writing of this report. India’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 23.5% as of May 2020, which is the highest record of urban jobless rate setting a new all-time high as the country is still under locked down amid a spike in the number of COVID-19 cases. 

However, the rural area had a drop in unemployment when the government unlocks the economy and better fund allocation under the rural job scheme to help stimulate the economy.

U.S. Fundamentals

The Core durable goods will help online broker operators access the economy’s health and the possible opportunities for investment. 

The orders placed to the manufacturer will have ripple effects in the economy if there is a rise in production, and this will increase activities as they work to fill-in orders. The order placed for durable goods excludes transportation items like aircraft.

 If the expected is higher than the forecasted, it is good for the economy, while if the outcome is lower than the forecast, it is not good for the economy.

Forecast -2.5% Previous -7.7%

USDINR Price Analysis

USDINR Long term Projection: Bullish

Monthly Chart

USDINR Outlook - Monthly Chart - June 25 2020

The bullish momentum which started since 2018 after the regular bullish divergence has been trending to date. 

The Indian Rupee is weak; furthermore, the COVID-19 crisis has affected the Indian forex, and the stocks are down likewise some other banks.

The resistance of 74.528 became a support for the bulls, taking the price up to and exposing 77.416 zones.

Weekly Chart

USDINR Outlook - Weekly Chart - June 25 2020

Weekly Resistance Levels: 77.416

Weekly Support Levels: 68.123, 68.572, 70.346, 72.066, 73.990, 75.829

The USDINR uptrend that started from the 68.572 and 68.123 support zone of July 2019 has been on a bullish trend after the bullish engulfing. You can see that the market rested between 72.066 and 70.346 before another upward surge that broke above the resistance zone (November 2019).

After weeks of correction, the market might be on its way up to the resistance zone of 77.416. Since they rejected USDINR price at the support zone of 73.990 (27 April 2020), it has been going up; we watch how price reacts within the region.

USDINR Medium-Term Projections: Bullish 

Daily Chart

USDINR Outlook - Daily Chart - June 25 2020

Daily Resistance Levels: 75.820, 76.330, 76.822, 77.416


Daily Support Levels: 71.064, 71.333, 71.907, 73.432, 74.360

The daily chart shows rejection of price at the Support zones of 73.432 and 74.360 (13 March and 17 March 2020 respectively).

After days of ranging, USDINR price finally closed above the 75.820 level, breaking out above of range. This will attract more buyers to push prices to the region of 77.416.

 4HR Chart

4Hour Resistance Levels: 75.458, 75.572, 75.676, 76.198, 76.330, 76.318


4Hour Support Levels: 73.990, 74.468, 74.654, 75.72

For the past hours, we can see that the bullish momentum that closed above the 25 and 27 May 2020 resistance had a pullback to retest the zone, which is now acting as support pushing the trend up after the double bottom chart pattern formed on support from the previous resistance.

The swing has been a higher high and high lows right from the support level of 02 June 2020(74.654). A close above the resistance of 16th and 18th June 2020 will expose the 76.318 level.

 Bullish Scenario

Generally, the bullish scenario can be seen in all the time frames. It is obvious that the Bulls are currently taking control of the market.

Bearish Scenario:

The bearish scenario is weak on both short term and long terms for USDINR. The Bears are pushing down the price on the 4Hours time frame but lack the momentum to override the bulls.

Conclusion and Projection

The Indian rupee is not at its best in this current situation against the USD dollar. The coronavirus pandemic has not favored either of the economies in the world; rather, it caused havoc to both the stronger economy and the emerging economy. 

For the online brokers, they have to wait for the best opportunity to maximize profit India forex.


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