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EURUSD – Weekly Outlook for 3rd July 2021

EURUSD Forecast for Forex


The trading week will be volatile for the major pairs on the online forex platforms as market participants expect the U.S to release the news on non-farm payroll for the new month. 

We may see a further strengthening of the Greenback.

Investors are looking past the relief measures announced by India’s finance minister as the market fell after a spike in the number of coronaviruses increased across Asia over the weekend.

EURO and US News

German Final Manufacturing PMI

The Survey is a leading indicator of the health of the economy and businesses react quickly to the market conditions and the managers are in a better position to view the health of the economy. 

They carried the survey out among 400 purchasing managers who asked respondents to rate the business conditions in terms of prices, inventories, new orders, and supplier deliveries in the manufacturing industry. 

A result that is higher than Forecast is good for the currency but a lower outcome is not suitable for the currency. Any figure above 50.0 indicates expansion while a lower figure means that there is contraction.

The Forecast is 64.9 while the previous was 64.9.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

The PMI survey was carried out among 300 purchasing managers who asked respondents to rate the current business conditions, employment, prices, deliveries, and other relevant information. 

The manages have better insight into the company’s view of the economy and the health of the economy. 

A data above 50.0 shows an expansion in the industry while a below 50.0 shows contraction.

If the actual data is greater than the expected outcome, it is good for the currency while a lower outcome won’t be suitable for the currency. The Forecast is 61.0 while the previous was 61.2

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Weekly Chart Bearish Swing

EURUSD weekly chart - July 3 2021

Weekly Resistance Level: 1.23576, 1.22646

Weekly Support Level: 1.05999, 1.18484, 1.17013

The rise in the COVID-19 cases in the Asian region has bought fresh traveling restrictions and lockdown measures which have poured out cold water on the global market. 

The greenback rose in strength to 92.003 (0.14%) from the low of 90.68. The EURUSD pair is on a downtrend as the US dollar is gaining strength in the market, a close below the support zones of 1.18484 and 1.17103 will probably take the price down to the net low of 1.5099. 

However, the psychological level of the 1.18484 zones may repel the price if the bulls can build momentum from the zone for a retest of the resistance level.

Daily Chart Projections: Bearish,

EURUSD daily chart - July 3 2021


Daily resistance levels 1.23576, 1.22646, 1.19961

Daily Support Levels 1.18407, 1.16972

The daily chart is bearish as the price has broken the low of 1.19961 which is now acting as a resistance against the correction of the trend. If the bears are able to close below the lows of 1.18407 and 1.16972, we shall see a free fall of price from those zones. 

From the Europe zone, the Economic sentiment hit a 21-year high in the EU with (+3.0 points) and the euro area (+3.4 points) compared to the report of May at 117.0(EU) /117.9 (EA) points, that as outstrips its long-term average and pre-pandemic state hitting the 21-year high. 

The Economic Sentiment Indicator showed improved confidence in the services sector as well as business sectors and consumers. At the counties level, the ESI reached an all-time high for Germany at (+5.0), a climbed for Italy with (+2.1), France (+1.3), Netherlands (+1.9), Poland (+0.2) and Spain had a drop in its ESI among the six biggest EU countries with (-1.1)

The bulls will hold for a possible long position from the support levels of 1,16972 and 1.18407 to push back the price up. A close above the previous support turned into resistance (1.19961) will take the price to the resistance zone of 1.22646.

EH4 Intraday Chart Overview, 

4 Hour Resistance levels 1.22651, 1.20048

4 Hour Support levels 1.18407,

The EURUSD pair on the Forex platform is bearish on the H4 time frame as we can see that the price keeps breaking the lows to create lower lows and lower highs. 

The bearish marubozu candlestick indicates a total dominance of the Bears in the market and selling pressure has kept the buyers out of the market. A movement in price lower than the current low (1.18407) will lead to the continuation of the downtrend. 

The price is consolidating within the High and Low of 1.20048 and 1.18407 respectively, either for a breakout below the support or for a close above the resistance level of 1.20048 which will take the price towards the 1.22651 levels.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The vaccination rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in recent months is boosting the economic outlook as the Asian market had been buoyed with trillions of dollars of monetary and fiscal stimulus by governments and central banks around the globe in response to the COVID19. 

New lockdown measures are placed in some parts of Asia and travel restrictions are put placed in different counties in Asia because of the infectious coronavirus Delta variant that was first identified in India. 

The EURUSD pair is Bearish on the Daily time frame and we expect the trend to continue if the low on the chart can be taking out for a continuation of the trend. However, if the non-farm payroll does not favor the US dollar, we shall see a reversal of the trend.

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