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USDINR – Weekly Outlook for March 29 2019

USDINR : Weekly Technical Analysis for Forex Brokers


This week comes packed with interesting fundamental announcements for Olymp trade traders to decipher the general health of the Indian and U.S economy. Come along as we take a look at these events as well as significant technical trend patterns.

India’s Fundamentals 

India’s Federal Fiscal Deficit 

Scheduled for release on Friday, March 29 ’19 by the Controller General of Accounts is the Federal Fiscal Deficit. The result is a measure of the difference between government spending and revenue. A negative reading shows a surplus of the Indian accounts, which is positive for the Indian Rupee. Growth in debt, on the other hand, indicates negative sentiment for the Indian Rupee. A previous reading of 7,708.45B was last released.

India’ Bank Loan Growth

The Reserve Bank of India is scheduled to release results for Bank Loans, which is a measure of the number of lending local financial institutions. A higher than expected result is considered bullish for the Indian Rupees while a low reading shows negative sentiment for the Indian Rupee.

India’s FX Reserves in USD

Again, the Reserve bank of India will publish the FX Reserves, which is a reflection of sale and purchase of foreign exchange by the Central Bank; transactions with endorsed foreign institutions; as well as sales earnings on foreign securities.

A high value shows bullish sentiment for the Indian Rupee, while a negative value shows a bearish outlook. The previous reading was $405.64B.

United States Fundamentals 

US New Home Sales

The housing market reflects the health of a nation’s economy, and figures of the new home sales published by the US Census Bureau estimates the health of the housing market. The activities of buyers of real estate through financing and furnishing of their homes stimulates the demand for goods and services. A high reading is usually perceived as bullish for the USD, while a negative reading is bearish, as the previous release was at 0.607M compared to 0.602 M of consensus.

Technical Analysis

USDINR Monthly Chart

USDINR Analysis- Monthly Chart- march 29 2019

Following a bearish price drop that lasted between 02 January ’17 and 01 August ’17, the monthly chart of the USDINR breaks out of bearish pressure on 01 February ’18. This was a major trigger for a series of bullish closing candles that resulted in a 14% price increase, showing a stronger USD. Double bullish pressure patterns on June and July ’18 reinforced the bullish campaign and making way for scaling into the bullish trend for an extra 8.87% rise.

A long-bearish candle was triggered on 02 November ’18, confirming an overbought U.S dollar, and consequently a decline in the exchange rates. The long upper wick on 03 December ’18 shows rejection of buyers and possibilities of establishing new lows. 

USDINR: Weekly Chart

USDINR Analysis- Weekly Chart- march 29 2019

A view from the weekly chart illustrates a breakdown of the long bearish monthly candle, as consecutive bearish closing bars. The overbought nature of the pair was emphasized, as price triggered bearish accumulation on October 29 and 30 ‘18. A change in the structure of the pair from compact to oscillatory is observed on the weekly chart.

Price triggers a bullish fakey pattern confirming the bottoming on 07 Jan ’19 as the pair attains a 2.3% rally. A breakdown of hidden bullish accumulation was fired on 04 March ’19 signaling a continuation of the bearish trend.

USDINR Daily Chart

USDINR Analysis- Daily Chart- march 29 2019

From a daily chart perspective, the pair is enclosed in a bearish channel signaled by bullish and bearish divergence patterns. The first being a bullish divergence on 09 January ’19 was confirmed by a golden cross of the MACD oscillator, while the bearish divergence was endorsed by a dead cross of MACD, in union with a collapse of bullish inflation on 19, and 28 Feb ’19.

Conclusion and Projection

The Indian Rupee currently shows strength against the USD in the first quarter, entering deep swings on the daily and weekly charts. The pair is projected to maintain a long term bearish trend on the monthly chart as shown by major market makers and forex brokers.

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