Bitcoin to USD ( BTCUSD ) Weekly Outlook , March 26 2019
BTCUSD Forecast and Technical Analysis & Fundamentals for Bitcoin
Introduction
Traders liquidate their positions in gold and crypto assets in a bid to cover their positions in crashing stock markets has led to a domino effect on all Indian brokers platforms as Bitcoin BTC sees a -63.43% slump from the 10 Feb ’20 high.
The fear, uncertainty, and doubt consequently send panic selling of Bitcoin among retail traders leading to triggered stop orders; both exit stops and sell stops.
In this weeks’ post, we’ll turn to the BTCUSD charts following a top to bottom approach and identify the psychological levels that resulted in the price collapse and perhaps hints of a price recovery.
Bitcoin to USD – Technical Analysis
Monthly Chart
For the first time since the golden cross in 2015, the Bitcoin price spikes below the 50-period Moving Average from a Monthly chart perspective.
A price close below the $6425.00 support will spell doom for the bulls as the bearish volatility sends chills down their spine.
On the other hand, the recent price slump may be considered the beginning of a corrective C-wave in an Elliot wave structure, signaling an end to a longer-term corrective wave, to resume the bullish trend towards the $20K threshold.
Weekly Chart
A second regular bullish divergence may be the saving signal to restore the Bitcoin price to the upside if the %K can cross above %D of the stochastic oscillator.
As bearish momentum slows down, buyers lookout for an excellent spot to enter short term positions. Let’s move on to analyze the daily chart for a closer look at the price dynamics.
Daily Chart
As the bulls struggle to launch a campaign towards the upside, the stochastic oscillator sets new highs while the price still trades below the 06 March resistance (8990.01).
Here, we view the price increase from the daily chart as a trap to draw in unsuspecting bulls in and leave them hanging with the bag. We do not recommend buying the BTCUSD at this point, as a dead cross of the stochastic oscillator could again send the price tumbling south.
CEO of Binance Changpeng Zhao has insisted that the current coronavirus pandemic was just the flash that kindled the current financial meltdown across the globe and not its cause.
The CEO made this known in a March 20 blog post. According to “CZ,” the Coronavirus has only shown that the world’s economy is far too weak.
When questioned if situations this year were distinct from the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008, Zhao stated that no pandemic caused the 2008 financial crisis. He said that the Coronavirus is simply a trigger at the moment, and not the root cause of the present economic crisis. The world’s economy, he maintained, must be more robust and at least strong enough to withstand some shocks.
Conclusion and Projection
Buying Bitcoin BTC for a long term holding with the current market structure can be likened to trying to catch a falling knife, a move that often spells doom for most retail traders.
A better approach would be to wait for another slump in the BTCUSD price from the anticipated bearish divergence on the daily chart, before buying in it back upon nodding a bullish counter setup.
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