EURUSD – Weekly Outlook for 9th April 2021
EURUSD Forecast for Forex
Introduction
The US economy on the Indian forex brokers started Q1 on a good note. Its achievement in vaccine distribution reduced the number of affected cases in the US. Europeans had an increase of infected persons during the 2nd and 3rd waves of the covid-19 pandemic, leading to the lockdown extension during the Esther holiday.
EURO and US News
The EURUSD pair may find its way back to the downtrend as the ECB plans to ramp up the PEPP (Pandemic emergency Purchase Programme) purchases throughout Q2 at a higher pace than the Q1 of 2021.
The US economy shows better signs in the recovery process with the possibility of driving the dollar strength in the nearest future as the world GDP is expected to reach 6.0% and 4.44% in 2022, with the dollar leading amid the covid19 pandemic.
The German Final Services PMI
The PMI is a quick outlook on a country’s economic health in terms of business, services, and production as the purchasing managers have a better view of the company’s position. The survey was carried out among 400 managers who were asked to rate the relative level of business conditions in inventories, employment, and new orders.
An outcome above 50.0 is an expansion in the economy, while below shows a contraction. The forecast is 50.8 while the previous is 50.8. A higher result above the prognosis is good for the currency, and a lower data is not suitable for the currency.
The US Unemployment Claims
Every week, new persons who file in for unemployment for the first time are recorded with the department of labor for insurance purposes. The number is a signal of the economy’s overall status, and it is crucial for those steering the countries’ monetary policies.
A higher data than the forecast is not suitable for the economy, while a lower outcome is good for the US dollar. The previous data was 719K, while the forecast is 690K.
EURUSD Technical Analysis
Weekly Chart Bearish Starts
Weekly Resistance Level: 1.23482, 1.20539
Weekly Support Level: 1.16124, 1.177045
The EURUSD pair was able to find support at the previous zones of September 2020 (1.17045). We expect the price to go up towards the resistance levels for a retest of the area.
It confirms with the indicator showing the price entering into an oversold region, while long position traders are anticipating the price will be going to the upside for a buy trade.
If the bulls rally is strong, we can see the price close above the resistance level of 1.23482 to continue a bullish trend.
Daily Chart Projections: Bearish correction
Daily Resistance levels 1.19525, 1.21895, and 1.23495
Daily Support levels 1.17615
From the support level of 1.17616 of March 25, 2021, we will see bulls dominate the market for a push above the 1.19525 level for another swing to test the high of 1.21895 since the bullish divergence is playing out in line with the indicator.
A failure to close above the resistance zone will likely bring back the Bears into the market for another bearish rally which will probably break below the support level of 1.17616.
H4 Intraday Chart Overview
H4 Resistance levels 1.19470, 1.19878
H4 support levels 1.17020, 1.17842
The recent trend on the four-hour timeframe is bullish as we can see strong engulfing candles shooting the price higher. At this report’s writing, we can see the bullish momentum rising towards the resistance level of 1.19470.
We expect the zone to reject the Bulls advancement before seeing a breakout above the resistance zone or seeing a trend reversal from the spot.
Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives
AT the ECB previous meeting, the President under tune was dovish and a forward guide for investors and the banks. It will influence the mid-term projection of the EURUSD pair. The President of ECB Christine Lagarde and co will rely on its nonstandard tools to achieve its price stability objective.
The Euro may face a headwind ahead of the upcoming interest rate in April 2021.
We expect the bullish rally to extend for the week before the IMF meeting outcome influences the EURUSD pair’s direction.
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