USDINR – Weekly Outlook & Analysis for 10th September 2021
USDINR Forecast & Technical Analysis for Forex
The trading week will probably bring USDINR into a bullish run on the IQ Option platform as it has held the bearish rally on the support level for some days on the daily chart. Most market participants will focus on the monetary policy meeting that will take place during the week.
The Indian economy is seeing an enormous leap in e-commerce since their digital adoption. Their partnership with HSBC has also brought about Global liquidity, rise in risk appetite and supply of funds because of geopolitical changes.
The coronavirus pandemic has helped to bring about the change and increased the online services which has added about 0.25% point to the county’s gross domestic product.
According to a researcher, Preqin Ltd, some Global investors like Singapore’s Temasek Holdings Pte, KKR and Co. and Fidelity Investments have pumped money into India economy while China’s increased their crackdowns on private enterprise therefore, it increases the strength of Indian rupee.
The Unemployment claims are a lagging indicator by some economist but it is still significant on the overall condition of the economy. Consumer spending has a correlation with the labor market conditions because policy makers are considered unemployment as a major factor for decision to take when dealing with the county’s policy.
The department takes notes of individuals who file in for jobless claims insurance for the first time in the week. If the number of individuals is higher than the previous week, it is not suitable for the US dollar, but a lower record of individuals than the forecast is good for the US currency.
USDINR Price Analysis
Monthly Chart Projection: Trades within correction area
Monthly Resistance Levels: 75.00, 74.56
Monthly Support Levels: 72.22, 72.90
The grave stone candlestick of 01 July 2021 respected the monthly trend line connecting the Highs from 01 April 2021 (76.90) which led to the bearish move of the pair. The online brokers took the opportunity to open short positions as the trend favor the sellers from the resistance zone. For the trend to continue, the price has to close lower than the support levels of 72.90.
The price is technically hitting the support trend line connecting the low and higher lows from the 71. 09 levels and 72.22 zone, which may be a retracement for the Indian rupee against the US dollar. If the Bull’s momentum is stronger, we may see the bullish run back to the 73.00 zone.
Weekly Resistance Levels: 74.53, 74.07, 75.53
Weekly Support Levels: 72.31, 72.16
From the weekly chart, we can see that price broke out below the support level of 74.07 that led to the Bears dominant of the market, which strengthen the India rupee as the emerging economy grows in strength. The price of the USDINR pair is hitting a support zone (72.31) if the bears rally is strong, we may see the price drop lower into the zone.
Look at the chart from the forex platform, there is a possibility for the price to bounce from that area if the Bulls are able to gain momentum around the zone. If the zone holds on the forex platform, we shall see Bull pushing the price higher.
Daily Projections: Breakout of Descending Triangle
Daily Resistance Levels: 74.48, 74.55, 74.50
Daily Support Levels: 72.91, 72.50, 74.07
The daily chart had some ranging experience some weeks back before price broke out below the support level of 74.08 and push the pair down to the current support level of 72.91. are we likely to see another bearish swing like it did previously as price ranged for days? However, the trend is still bearish and there is possibility for the price to drop lower if the sellers can close below the current support level.
If the trend is to reverse on the daily chart, we may begin to see the swing creating higher highs and higher lows as the days progress and we need to see the price of the pair take out the resistance zone of 74.50
Online brokers, we need to see a strong push back of price from the support levels of 72.91 on the daily time frame if they must reclaim their position on the forex platform. The trading week may likely run bullish on the forex platform.
The Indian rupee made gains against the US dollar at the closed of August candle with about 1.7% on the daily chart. We may see the trend continue if the short position traders can close below some key zones like 72.16 and lower to boost the Bears dominance of the market.
Conclusion and Projection
The Indian rupee will probably experience some weakness against the US dollar, as the price has failed to close below the support levels of 72.91 for some days.
Online brokers and other market participants will watch out for the ECB meeting and the Fed statements that will be released during the week.